THOMAS NOGALES FINANCIAL, LLC
July 2007 Update
The S&P500 is at 1502 on 30-June-2007
Year to date, the S&P500 index is up 6.8% and the TNF Balanced Portfolio is up 3.6% (with half the stock market risk.)
Symbol
|
Return
|
Asset Class and % of Total
|
PCRIX
|
|
Commodity Futures 10%
|
VGSIX
|
-6.33
|
REIT Index 10%
|
VFINX
|
+6.88
|
S&P500 15%
|
VMFXX
|
+2.52
|
Money Market 5%
|
VBMFX
|
+.78
|
Bond Index 30%
|
VGTSX
|
+11.94
|
International Stock 15%
|
VISVX
|
+5.0
|
Small Cap Value 15%
|
As of 6/30/07
Market Alert Model
The TNF core model is used to time large cap stocks. It’s currently IN the stock market. Stocks are ok to hold. Inflation is under control. Stay invested with proper diversification.
Year Ahead Timing Model
The YAT model is used to indicate periods of buy opportunities within the Market Alert Model’s timing cycle. The TNF Market Alert Model always trumps the YAT model. The YAT model is positive with a good probability the S&P500 will be higher one year from today.
Interest Rate Model
The TNF Interest Rate model is negative on interest rates and long bonds.
Stock Trends
We're in the summer stock market doldrums. Last year at this time the market experienced about the same thing. We saw a downward shift only to recover strongly later in the year. One year ago the S&P500 was at 1270 and now it's over 1500. That's a sizeable gain. The important thing is to stay invested despite bumps in the road. Speaking of bumps, the REIT market had a bad month dropping about 10%. I'd call that a correction.
I remain unconcerned about inflation and don't see it as a factor in bond rates at this time.
Economic growth appears sluggish but the numbers should improve by the 3rd quarter. I see little chance of a recession or any reason to fear a market correction. In short, it looks like a boring economic summer is shaping up. It's probably a good time to paint the house or just relax.
MY NEW BOOK!
A couple months ago I mentioned that my book would be published soon. The title is: "How to Invest If You Can't Afford to Lose".
The book is trade paperback and 204 pages and includes many color charts.
From the back cover:
Easy Investing for Everyone
How would you like to consistently beat the yearly returns of the best pension funds and without worries of disastrous down years?
How to Invest If You Can’t Afford to Lose proves that winning at investing is doable. Learn a simple, low-cost way to self-manage your investment money with conservative asset mixes that produce great returns. Even better, these portfolios haven’t lost money in decades.
If you can’t afford to lose, then this is the book you’ve been waiting for.
It's my belief that millions of investors are at a point in life where they can no longer afford to take devastating losses. But, they still need to obtain respectable returns from their invested cash. Using asset correlation analysis and computer modeling, I've devised investment strategies that never lose money and produce excellent returns. I have strategies that are relatively low risk and beat the nation's major pension funds.
Many people in the financial services industry will not like this book. The honest one's will applaud it. There's no reason for people to continue to be ripped-off by self-serving financial advisors and annuity salesmen.
I've never seen another book like this for the consumer market. It's written for the layman in simple, easy to understand language. Tell your friends about this book. I'm certain it will change the lives and the personal financial circumstances of readers. Anyone concerned about outliving their money, needs to read this book.
Table of Contents:
Introduction
Part One: Financial Groundwork
Who Should Read This Book
Part Two: Portfolio Strategies
Part Three: Thoughts on Investing
It will be ready by August 1, 2007.
I've decided not to distribute the book through Amazon but will self-publish through Southwest Ranch Publishing. When the book is ready, I'll have an ordering page for credit card payments at www.swranch.net/books . The price will be $20 plus $3 shipping/handling.
SPECIAL OFFER FOR SUBSCRIBERS!
There's a discount for subscribers on my mailing list. The price is $15 plus $3 shipping.
If you're interested in purchasing, you can advance order.
Send a check payable to: Tom Gleason
Mail To:
Southwest Ranch Publishing
PO Box 1570
Hereford, AZ 85615
Best Regards,
Thomas Nogales Financial, LLC (www.thomasnogales.com)
Tom Gleason, Manager & Researcher
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Disclaimer:.
Investing involves risk and the future performance of the models cannot be guaranteed. TNF is not a registered investment advisor and nothing published by TNF should be considered personalized investment advice. Any investment recommendations made by TNF should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or relevant financial statements. TNF does not receive any compensation for mentioning stocks, funds, or financial products.